Economic Prognostication

I haven't done this in a while, so I will lay out how I think the rest of the economic crisis will unfold... If Greece defaults, it will be an all out shit storm...

The Euro will fall until Greece default, on the assumption that the debt will be monetized and thus print their way out of mistakes. The dollar will rally in the meantime.

Loose monetary policy
low interest rates, but interestingly we have tight credit markets
allows households to refinance debt
corporations can borrow and fuel growth

TOO MUCH DEBT, everywhere
looming currency depreciation
Euro breakup

assets rise/reflation/people get out of debt
uncertainty, hampers growth
results in increase in savings rate, hampers growth more, hits discretionary jobs
bankruptcy/high inflation resets everything, start over
rising dollar, higher unemployment
rising stocks, people spend more

financial commodities
industrial commodities